Decision Theory Under Uncertainty (Rational Choice)

I guess enough time has passed that I can confess that my previous post titled "Mandates and Pragmatism" was an allegory about the IUID mandate, and other mandates like it (if the shoe fits..).

When one steps back and asks enough "why" questions, it becomes evident that the problem that we are trying to solve is the problem of a mandate.  It is the "because I said so" rationale of our parents. Therefore, removing the mandate solves the problem. No? So, go ahead, kids, and eat your dessert first. Tell your parents I said so.

During one particularly futile discussion about the subject at an IUID conference I took to doodling in my notebook and produced the following mathematical model.

You see, I spent many frustrating months studying Izhak Gilboa's book "Decision Theory Under Uncertainty", so I figured that I would finally put some of that knowledge to good use. Gilboa is one of the living legends in the field of decision theory. Another one of his famous works is "Rational Choice".  I must warn you that his works are no light reading. One of the things I usually found when reading Gilboa was that it would take me a lot of effort to get through his mathematical models and proofs, only to arrive at a "duh" moment. So you mean that green marbles are not blue?

To summarize my doodle, the model is actually a mathematical representation using decision theory notation of a very fundamental issue: what is the rational choice?  If the set of choices are Navy ERP, IUID alone, or a combination of the two?

The value of the utility function was in terms of FIAR compliance.

The conclusion of my doodling is that concentrating on ensuring that the Accountable Property System of Record (APSR) is FIAR compliant would be a more rational choice than trying to comply with both the IUID mandate and APSR FIAR compliance, since IUID alone would never provide 100% FIAR compliance. Like my kids would say... uhmmm.... duh! Once we put it like that... who needs math?